What the Stock Market Looked Like 100 Years Ago and What It Might Look Like 100 Years From Now

From building Railroads to building Robots. A Century of Market Growth and the Math Behind What Comes Next

Let’s zoom way out. Like 100 years out.

If you invested $1,000 in the stock market in 1925 and just left it alone, that money today would be worth over $450,000 assuming a 7% average annual return. No crypto. No crazy stocks just the S&P 500 from 1957 till now and the Standard & Poor's which was a 90-stock index that was launched in 1926, which was followed by the 500-stock version (S&P 500) which debuted in 1957. So nothing crazy just boring, beautiful compounding.

So what would happen if you did the same thing today? What does the next century look like? And what does that tell us about right now?

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How $1,000 Grew in Different Decades

Legend:
🔵 2010s (blue)
🟠 2000s (orange)
⚪️ 1990s (light grey)
🟡 1980s (yellow)
🔵+👶 1970s (baby blue)
🟢 1960s (green)
🌑 1950s (dark blue)
🔴 1940s (red)
⚪️+⚫️ 1930s (dark grey)

Some decades, like the 1950s and 1980s, were rocket fuel for investors. Others, like the 1930s (Great Depression) or the 2000s (dot-com bust + 2008), were flat or even negative.

The takeaway: Decade-to-decade, markets can be chaotic. But over time, they overwhelmingly trend up.

(Notice how you ended up in the positive every decade outside of the 30’s and 2000’s if you just held.)

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Now vs. Then: What the Market Looked Like in 1925

In 1925:

• The S&P 500 didn’t even formally exist (launched in 1957)

• The major companies were U.S. Steel, AT&T, Ford, General Electric

• The average American did not own stocks

• Investing was for the rich or the reckless

• And the Great Depression was 4 years away

Today:

• You can buy the entire market from your phone in 30 seconds

• 61% of U.S. adults own stock

• Index funds dominate

• The top major companies are Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta

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Projecting the Next 100 Years

Let’s say the S&P 500 continues its historical 7% annual average return.

• Today’s 5,000 level could hit 1.4 million by 2125

• A $1,000 investment now would grow to $280,000+

• A $10K investment? Worth $2.8M

Will every year be up? Of course not. But the math of compounding doesn’t care about your emotions. It only needs time.

What could drive the next century of growth?

• AI & automation: Entire new industries and productivity explosions

• Biotech/longevity: New trillion-dollar health markets

• Frontier markets: Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America on the rise

• Decentralized finance: Broader access to capital and investing

• Climate infrastructure: From carbon removal to new energy systems

The 1920s had railroads, steel, and oil. The 2020s might have AI, atoms, and Mars.

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What does “points” mean in the stock market?

In simple terms:
1 point = 1 unit of index value.

Scoreboard Analogy:

Think of the S&P 500 like a basketball game.

• The index level (like 5,000 points) is the score.

• The players are the 500 biggest companies in the U.S.

• Some players (like Apple or Microsoft) are all-stars and score more than others (they’re weighted more).

• When the team does well — the score (index points) goes up.

• When they struggle — the score drops.

So if the “team” goes from 5,000 to 5,200, that’s +200 points — just like adding 200 to a scoreboard.

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Final Thought

In 1925, stock investing was rare and viewed as risky. In 2025, not investing might be the real risk.

The wealth engine of the past century wasn’t a stock, a sector, or a secret. It was ownership + time + patience.

The question now is: are you going to own a piece of the next 100 years?

-- EV